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13 Aug 2014
The day ahead and event risks - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained that there’s likely to be an eye on event risk again today.
Key Quotes:
“A Russian aid convoy is apparently still heading for Ukraine, and Kiev has made clear it will turn it back – how that plays out deserves close monitoring. At the same time there appears a strong possibility that the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza will collapse at midnight, with a marked escalation in fighting likely in that case”.
“Data-wise, we have Aussie consumer confidence and then Q2 wage costs to look at (seen up 0.6% QoQ and 2.6% YoY as in Q1, which is nothing for the RBA – or wage earners – to get excited about, especially when house prices are growing at four time that rate)”.
“In China we get fixed-asset investment, retail sales, and industrial production. That package of data is likely to reaffirm that pouring vast amounts of new credit into the economy is generating a growth response (just not a very big one, which underlines China’s structural problems: too much credit in the wrong places)”.
“In the UK we get unemployment data, with the claimant count seen down from 6.5% to 6.4% - further pressure on the BOE ahead of its Inflation Report today”.
“The Eurozone has industrial production, which is seen +0.4% MoM and just 0.2% YoY, down from 0.5% in May (suggesting that elusive beast, the Eurozone recovery, looks to have been scared off into the undergrowth even ahead of recent Russia tensions?)”.
“In the US we have retail sales (consensus 0.2% MoM headline and 0.4% ex autos) – and then the Fed’s Dudley and Rosengren speaking on the risks of wholesale funding (an issue deemed so risky it deserves two Fed speakers rather than one)”.
Key Quotes:
“A Russian aid convoy is apparently still heading for Ukraine, and Kiev has made clear it will turn it back – how that plays out deserves close monitoring. At the same time there appears a strong possibility that the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza will collapse at midnight, with a marked escalation in fighting likely in that case”.
“Data-wise, we have Aussie consumer confidence and then Q2 wage costs to look at (seen up 0.6% QoQ and 2.6% YoY as in Q1, which is nothing for the RBA – or wage earners – to get excited about, especially when house prices are growing at four time that rate)”.
“In China we get fixed-asset investment, retail sales, and industrial production. That package of data is likely to reaffirm that pouring vast amounts of new credit into the economy is generating a growth response (just not a very big one, which underlines China’s structural problems: too much credit in the wrong places)”.
“In the UK we get unemployment data, with the claimant count seen down from 6.5% to 6.4% - further pressure on the BOE ahead of its Inflation Report today”.
“The Eurozone has industrial production, which is seen +0.4% MoM and just 0.2% YoY, down from 0.5% in May (suggesting that elusive beast, the Eurozone recovery, looks to have been scared off into the undergrowth even ahead of recent Russia tensions?)”.
“In the US we have retail sales (consensus 0.2% MoM headline and 0.4% ex autos) – and then the Fed’s Dudley and Rosengren speaking on the risks of wholesale funding (an issue deemed so risky it deserves two Fed speakers rather than one)”.