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11 Aug 2014
Bearish bias for AUD/USD over 2014/15 - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - FX Strategists at JPMorgan retain a bearish bias for AUD over 2014/15.
Key Quotes
"The drivers are lower commodity prices, the prospect of modest US rate normalization, and underwhelming domestic cyclical performance."
"Our Dec-14 forecast for the AUD is 0.91, with a Mar-15 target of 0.90, reflecting the likelihood that the RBA’s neutral bias is preserved."
"Additionally, recent policy initiatives in China underscore the fact that policy makers seem more willing to underwrite the near term growth outlook."
"The main downside risk to the AUD stems from weakness in commodity prices. One of the notable developments in recent months has been the increasing divergence between the level of AUD and commodity prices."
"Recognizing the frictions that elevated AUD is causing, RBA Governor Stevens recently re-engaged in the jawboning effort. But this is hard to do convincingly without policy follow-through."
"Upside to the AUD looks limited. The domestic growth transition is still tentative, suggesting that rate differentials are unlikely to move in the AUD’s favour."
Key Quotes
"The drivers are lower commodity prices, the prospect of modest US rate normalization, and underwhelming domestic cyclical performance."
"Our Dec-14 forecast for the AUD is 0.91, with a Mar-15 target of 0.90, reflecting the likelihood that the RBA’s neutral bias is preserved."
"Additionally, recent policy initiatives in China underscore the fact that policy makers seem more willing to underwrite the near term growth outlook."
"The main downside risk to the AUD stems from weakness in commodity prices. One of the notable developments in recent months has been the increasing divergence between the level of AUD and commodity prices."
"Recognizing the frictions that elevated AUD is causing, RBA Governor Stevens recently re-engaged in the jawboning effort. But this is hard to do convincingly without policy follow-through."
"Upside to the AUD looks limited. The domestic growth transition is still tentative, suggesting that rate differentials are unlikely to move in the AUD’s favour."