NZD: Bearish medium-term bias - ANZ

According to analysts at ANZ, the squeeze higher for the NZD has been brutal as in between June and October the NZD was the worst performing G10 currency.

Key Quotes

“Since then it has been the strongest performer. In many ways this is justified, as the market shifts from expecting RBNZ rate cuts to hikes, but we now feel it has moved far enough.”

“To be fair though, global risk appetites are in the box seat and we can’t rule out a further push higher in the near-term. But there is certainly still plenty that leaves us cautious (with the mixed global trade headlines over the weekend part of that). And with the TWI back over 75 (4% above the RBNZ’s MPS assumption), the NZD is starting to look extended on some crosses. We retain a bearish medium-term bias.”