Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank Karen Jones noted the pair’s upside should meet strong resistance in the 1.2556/1.2651 band.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD has seen a decent rally off the 1.2110 2017-2018 uptrend. It will be interesting to see if it can maintain enough upside momentum to clear tough resistance at 1.2556/1.2651 (recent high and 10 year downtrend), currently we have our doubts. It should be noted that we now have a market stuck between a one year uptrend and a 10 year downtrend. I am slightly biased to failure, but I am not married to the view. Near term Elliott wave counts have neutralised so we have exited our long positions”.

“A close below 1.2110 will be needed to confirm the end of the move higher”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2651 would target 1.3190 the 50% retracement of the move down from 2008”.