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10 Feb 2016
EURUSD: Choppy in the near term, constructive in medium-term – Unicredit
Research Team at Unicredit, suggests that the EUR-USD is set to be choppy in the near term, but is likely to head upwards in the medium term.
Key Quotes
“Fundamentals argue for a higher EUR-USD; indeed the cross broke the 1.08-1.10 range (now at 1.12) that has been of reference since the ECB “under-delivered” in December.
That said, we expect a bumpy road ahead and, in the near term, rallies look likely to be capped as ECB FX rhetoric looms, especially now that diving equities (Euro STOXX 50 is down 11% YTD), and a higher TW EUR are (partly) offsetting easier financial conditions stemming from lower yields. Therefore, in the short term there will be plenty of volatility, but medium-to-long term we see the euro higher.”
Key Quotes
“Fundamentals argue for a higher EUR-USD; indeed the cross broke the 1.08-1.10 range (now at 1.12) that has been of reference since the ECB “under-delivered” in December.
That said, we expect a bumpy road ahead and, in the near term, rallies look likely to be capped as ECB FX rhetoric looms, especially now that diving equities (Euro STOXX 50 is down 11% YTD), and a higher TW EUR are (partly) offsetting easier financial conditions stemming from lower yields. Therefore, in the short term there will be plenty of volatility, but medium-to-long term we see the euro higher.”