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25 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: Sterling looks to have broken out of 2009 consolidative pattern - BBH
Marc Chandler, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman notes that Sterling appears to have broken out of the consolidiative pattern that it has traced out since early 2009.
He recalls that in late 2007, it moved through the 2.00 level, only to slump to 1.35 in early 2009 as the crisis unfolded. Since then, it has been carving out a clear consolidative pattern with the top found by connecting the 2009, 2011, and early 2013 highs. The lower part of the pattern is found by connecting the 2009, 2010 and 2012 lows. He writes, “The lower boundary was near $1.5740 recently. We think the downside break of the pattern will allow sterling to decline toward $1.48-$1.50 and possibly even back down to the $1.35 area in the somewhat longer term. If this bearish view is valid, sterling should not trade back above the $1.56-$1.57 area.”
He recalls that in late 2007, it moved through the 2.00 level, only to slump to 1.35 in early 2009 as the crisis unfolded. Since then, it has been carving out a clear consolidative pattern with the top found by connecting the 2009, 2011, and early 2013 highs. The lower part of the pattern is found by connecting the 2009, 2010 and 2012 lows. He writes, “The lower boundary was near $1.5740 recently. We think the downside break of the pattern will allow sterling to decline toward $1.48-$1.50 and possibly even back down to the $1.35 area in the somewhat longer term. If this bearish view is valid, sterling should not trade back above the $1.56-$1.57 area.”