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20 Feb 2013
Forex Flash: GBP/AUD could push to 1.5150 on RBA – Westpac
According to the Westpac Analyst Team, “The GBP/AUD has hit the 1.4925-1.5050 target and is probably due for at least stabilization, perhaps a push to 1.5150 so long as the RBA continues to threaten further easing and with sterling perhaps a little oversold. Trade above 1.5400 would probably require the RBA to indicate it will cut rates further than already priced in.”
For GBP/AUD to make another run at August 12 lows around 1.4700, we are likely to need to see another round of BoE QE, which is not our base case. The GBP/AUD remains well clear of its 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages as GBP has been the second weakest G10 currency so far in 2013, despite no real change in the BoEs policy outlook. “Charts maintain a bearish near term, with technicians seeing scope for 1.4700 and even 1.4550. Resistance is seen at 1.5100 and more importantly, 1.5350.”
For GBP/AUD to make another run at August 12 lows around 1.4700, we are likely to need to see another round of BoE QE, which is not our base case. The GBP/AUD remains well clear of its 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages as GBP has been the second weakest G10 currency so far in 2013, despite no real change in the BoEs policy outlook. “Charts maintain a bearish near term, with technicians seeing scope for 1.4700 and even 1.4550. Resistance is seen at 1.5100 and more importantly, 1.5350.”