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1 Apr 2015
USD Strengthening Likely Isn’t Over - DB
FXStreet (Mumbai) - Alan Ruskin, global head of developed-market currencies strategy at Deutsche Bank stated in an interview with WSJ that the greenback's rally is set to continue, although more gradually than before.
The dollar strengthened roughly 12% against rivals in 2014 (according to the US dollar index), and gained another around 8% this year through the first two weeks in March.
Key Quotes:
"You’re seeing enormous sensitivity to the timing of the Fed rate hike,"
"If the Fed tightens in June, then there’s a natural transition: The US rates story becomes the driver for the next leg in dollar strength."
"If Fed tightening is delayed through September, the euro could go all the way to $1.14,"
"If, instead, the market is more confident the Fed could go in June, then the euro won’t make progress against the dollar beyond the spike we saw after the Fed meeting. If we have to wait for November or December, that gives the FX market time for a lot of corrective activity."
"If the US economy underperforms while the rest of the world outperforms, and the Fed moves slower than expected to raise rates, then the dollar could weaken. There’s a scenario there where that could happen, but it’s by no means a central scenario."
The dollar strengthened roughly 12% against rivals in 2014 (according to the US dollar index), and gained another around 8% this year through the first two weeks in March.
Key Quotes:
"You’re seeing enormous sensitivity to the timing of the Fed rate hike,"
"If the Fed tightens in June, then there’s a natural transition: The US rates story becomes the driver for the next leg in dollar strength."
"If Fed tightening is delayed through September, the euro could go all the way to $1.14,"
"If, instead, the market is more confident the Fed could go in June, then the euro won’t make progress against the dollar beyond the spike we saw after the Fed meeting. If we have to wait for November or December, that gives the FX market time for a lot of corrective activity."
"If the US economy underperforms while the rest of the world outperforms, and the Fed moves slower than expected to raise rates, then the dollar could weaken. There’s a scenario there where that could happen, but it’s by no means a central scenario."