AUD/USD to fall to 0.73 before stabilising – Westpac

FXStreet (Barcelona) - Sean Callow of Westpac, assesses the impact of USD strength and falling commodities on the Aussie, expecting AUD/USD to weaken to 0.73 before stabilising.

Key Quotes

“The strength of the US dollar has opened levels on AUD/ USD that we had thought would at least hold for a while longer. AUD/USD has fallen about 2.5 cents since the US Feb employment report hit the screens, with USD up against all G10 currencies over the week.”

“Of course a lower AUD is welcomed by Australian policymakers even if trade-weighted AUD is still above early Feb lows.”

“There is no reason to assume a line in the sand on AUD/USD near term, particularly given the strength of global investor demand for USD.”

“We have long suggested 0.75 as a target for Q2 15; the risks are this is reached within days.”

“Commodities meanwhile are not helping AUD’s cause. Spot iron ore has fallen for 7 straight sessions.”

“Our baseline forecasts remain for recovery over the course of 2015 but short term, it is hard to be optimistic.”

“Combined with the RBA’s ongoing easing bias, AUD/USD looks set to print 0.75 and multi-week/month could extend to 0.73 before stabilizing.”