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15 Jan 2015
Australia's jobs expected to decline by 10k - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key events for Thursday, paying special attention to Australia's jobs, in which the bank expects a -10k correction vs +5k consensus.
Key Quotes
"Despite historically deep skepticism over the reliability of the headline numbers, AUD is sure to be sensitive to Australia’s December labour force data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The 43k surge in total jobs in Nov was a long way above expectations but only brought the 3 month average to 14k. The -10k correction Westpac expects would leave the 3 month average around 15k, bringing the annual job gain to 1.4%. Consensus is +5k with a range of -20 to +25k. We agree with the median forecast for the unemployment rate to hold at 6.3% (high since 2002), assuming the participation rate dips 0.1ppt to 64.7%."
"Markets are divided on the Bank of Korea decision (approx. 12pm Syd/9am Sing/HK). Bloomberg reports 4 of 17 forecasters looking for -25bp to a 1.75% repo rate, the rest for no change. President Park’s speech this week was seen by some as adding pressure for a rate cut. We lean slightly towards a steady hand. Market pricing is about 25% chance of -25bp."
"The US data calendar is crowded. The Jan NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index is seen recovering to +5 from -4 in Dec, which was a low since Jan 2013. The Jan Philly Fed business survey is also due, expected to ease to around +19 from +24, both healthy readings. There should be less attention on Dec PPI and weekly jobless claims."
Key Quotes
"Despite historically deep skepticism over the reliability of the headline numbers, AUD is sure to be sensitive to Australia’s December labour force data at 11:30am Syd/8:30am Sing/HK. The 43k surge in total jobs in Nov was a long way above expectations but only brought the 3 month average to 14k. The -10k correction Westpac expects would leave the 3 month average around 15k, bringing the annual job gain to 1.4%. Consensus is +5k with a range of -20 to +25k. We agree with the median forecast for the unemployment rate to hold at 6.3% (high since 2002), assuming the participation rate dips 0.1ppt to 64.7%."
"Markets are divided on the Bank of Korea decision (approx. 12pm Syd/9am Sing/HK). Bloomberg reports 4 of 17 forecasters looking for -25bp to a 1.75% repo rate, the rest for no change. President Park’s speech this week was seen by some as adding pressure for a rate cut. We lean slightly towards a steady hand. Market pricing is about 25% chance of -25bp."
"The US data calendar is crowded. The Jan NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index is seen recovering to +5 from -4 in Dec, which was a low since Jan 2013. The Jan Philly Fed business survey is also due, expected to ease to around +19 from +24, both healthy readings. There should be less attention on Dec PPI and weekly jobless claims."