USD/CHF remains on the defensive below 0.9050, US PMI data in focus
- USD/CHF remains under selling pressure around 0.9045 in Friday’s early European session, down 0.23% on the day.
- Trump's rate cut calls undermine the USD against the CHF.
- Easing Middle East geopolitical tensions might cap the upside for the Swiss Franc.
The USD/CHF pair remains on the defensive around 0.9045 during the early European session on Friday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD) broadly. Traders will closely monitor the flash US S&P Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for January, which is due later on Friday.
During a virtual address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, US President Donald Trump on Thursday called for a drop in interest rates after asking for a reduction of oil prices set by a group of nations known as OPEC, which includes Saudi Arabia. "With oil prices going down, I'll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise they should be dropping all over the world," said Trump.
The Greenback remains weak following Trump’s remarks. Market players await more cues from the US economic data and further clarity on tariff announcements. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is scheduled for its next decision on interest rates next week, which is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at the current level of between 4.25% and 4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Although Trump tariff threats would have only a limited impact on Swiss inflation, easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal might cap the upside for the Swiss Franc (CHF), a safe-haven currency. However, any signs of renewed geopolitical risks or rising global uncertainties could boost the CHF against the USD.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.