AUD/USD: Relative rates and growth to weigh on Aussie – Danske Bank

The late 2023 rally in AUD/USD has faded somewhat in early 2024. Economists at Danske Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.

AUD/USD remains firmly in the hands of global risk sentiment

With Australian leading indicators pointing firmly downward, and US economic data still remaining solid, we expect relative rates and growth to weigh on AUD/USD going forward. 

AUD/USD remains firmly in the hands of global risk sentiment, where the outlook for inflation and rate cuts remains a key driver. 

We generally think that the Fed will opt for a more gradual pace for rate cuts, which will be a supportive factor for broad USD. We maintain our downward-sloping forecast profile unchanged.

AUD/USD Forecast: 0.6600 (1M), 0.6400 (3M), 0.6300 (6M), 0.6200 (12M)