Crude Oil continues to churn on rebel attack concerns, WTI roils near $72

Crude Oil markets see frothy action as barrel traders whipsaw on Houthi headlines.
EIA US Crude Oil production seen net higher, albeit with some regional declines.
Canadian Crude oil output set to increase as Trans Mountain nears completion.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil roiled on Tuesday, trading into consolidation just above $72.00 per barrel as geopolitical concerns surrounding ongoing Houthi attacks on civilian cargo ships in the Red Sea continues to prop up barrel bids in fearful, uneven market action.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels continue to vow to attack civilian cargo ships heading towards the Suez Canal past the coast of Yemen, and a front-loaded assault by coalition naval forces from the US and the UK has energy traders concerned that Houthi rebels will continue to target ships passing through the key waterway that connects Europe and Asia.

Despite ongoing supply line concerns, US Crude Oil stocks remain well-supplied, and oil derivative pipelines remain healthily full.

US, Canadian production continues to climb into all-time highs

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), US Crude oIl production facilities slightly increased net output this week after production from the Permian Basin climbed 5.5K barrels per day to 5.974 million bpd, pushing US Crude Oil output even higher despite slight easing in production from the Eagle Ford production center (down 2K bpd to 1.147 million bpd) and the Bakken oil production facility (down 500 bpd at 1.303 million bpd).

US oil production continues to entirely outpace global production cuts from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and North American Crude Oil output is set to climb even further with Canadian oil producers ramping up production as the Trans Mountain pipeline nears completion. According to reporting by The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg, Alberta oil output hit a record high in November of 4.2 million barrels per day, an 8.8% increase from the previous month. By comparison, Alberta produced an average of 3.8 million bpd through the first eleven months of 2023.

November’s increase in Canadian Crude Oil production makes Canada the fourth-largest producer of barrels globally.

WTI Technical Outlook

WTI US Crude Oil continues to trade into the midrange around the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $72.50 as barrel bids continue to shuffle around key levels, looking for a definitive push in either direction.

Long-term potential for a bullish push is declining as WTI trades laterally into a declining 50-day SMA, and topside momentum sees a technical ceiling from the 200-day SMA at $78.00.

WTI is up a scant 5.7% from December’s bottom bids near $67.97, and limited topside recovery sees US Crude Oil still down nearly 24% from last September’s peak bids near $94.00.