AUD/USD: Hurdle for a sustained period of appreciation is high – SocGen

AUD/USD builds gains from last week’s 0.6458 low after surprise RBA hike. Economists at Société Générale discuss the pair’s outlook.

Further tightening may be required to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable timeframe

The RBA delivered its second straight policy surprise by lifting the CRT by another 25 bps to 4.10%. This brings the cumulative tightening to 400 bps.

In the statement, the central bank says further tightening may be needed to bring inflation back to target in a reasonable timeframe. 

The AUD gains on knee-jerk buying but the hurdle for a sustained period of appreciation is high. We've been down this path many times before when the bounce peters out and sellers step in. Fed policy, China’s growth path and industrial metals take precedence over the RBA.