AUD/USD recovers early lost ground to fresh YTD low, climbs back to 0.6600 amid weaker USD
- AUD/USD reverses an intraday dip to a fresh YTD low amid the ongoing USD retracement slide.
- Reduced bets for a 50 bps Fed rate hike in March and falling US bond yields weigh on the buck.
- The risk-off mood might cap gains for the risk-sensitive Aussie ahead of the key US NFP report.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some buyers near the 0.6565 region on Friday and recovers early lost ground to a fresh four-month low. Spot prices climb back closer to the 0.6600 round-figure mark during the early European session and draw support from some follow-through US Dollar selling.
In fact, the USD Index, which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, retreats further from a three-month high amid reduced bets for more aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Data released on Thursday showed a larger-than-expected rise in the US Weekly Jobless Claims and was seen as the first sign of a softening labor market. This forced investors to reassess the possibility of a 50 bps lift-off at the upcoming FOMC meeting on March 21-22, which is evident from the ongoing downfall in the US Treasury bond yields and continues to weigh on the buck.
That said, the prevalent risk-off environment lends some support to the safe-haven Greenback and could keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar. The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns about economic headwinds stemming from rapidly rising borrowing costs. Adding to this, the recent softer Chinese macro data dashed hopes for a strong recovery in the world's second-largest economy and further fueled recession fears. This is reinforced by a deepening of the yield curve and tempers investors' appetite for perceived riskier assets.
Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish shift earlier this week, signalling that it might be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle, might contribute to capping gains for the AUD/USD pair. Traders might also prefer to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data, due later during the early North American session. The popularly known NFP report will play a key role in influencing the Fed's policy outlook, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and help determine the near-term trajectory for the major.
Technical levels to watch