EUR/CHF: Unlikely to benefit from growing optimism in Europe – MUFG

The Swiss Franc remained in a relatively tight range in February after initially strengthening from above parity versus the Euro. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the pair to trade slightly above 1.00 over the coming months.

Renewed CHF strength vs. EUR seems the greater risks over the short-term

“Renewed CHF strength versus EUR seems the greater risks over the short-term, especially if EUR/USD continues to drift back toward parity.”

“The SNB is using FX to help fight inflation and has been selling foreign currency bought previously when fighting deflation risks. This is likely to continue and hence Eurozone growth improvement after a weak H1, and improved broader risk sentiment as inflation declines will only have a limited impact on weakening CHF.”

“EUR/CHF – Q1 2023 1.0000 Q2 2023 1.0100 Q3 2023 1.0200 Q4 2023 1.0100.”